The last of the Euro 2008 quarter finals tonight and what great matches we’ve had so far.  After seeing the following Christiano Ronaldo headline on the front page of the Sun newspaper yesterday: ‘I don’t give a damn what Fergie thinks’ (about wanting his move to Real Madrid), it was good to see the following programme in the TV guide scheduled by ITV for 2.30pm on Saturday…..  Christiano Ronaldo: The story so far- Profile of the Portuguese footballer, who has enjoyed great success in the country with Manchester United.  Featuring contributions from Alex Ferguson and Wayne Rooney.

Obviously the description is a little out of date and should read Christiano Ronaldo: The story so far- still at Manchester United but will do anything to get his dream move to Real Madrid.  Featuring contributions from a fuming Alex Ferguson and a raging Wayne Rooney.  Not suitable for children, contains strong language and violence.

Spain v Italy

Head to head the two teams are close, out of 27 occasions Spain have won 8 times and Italy winning 9 times and 10 draws occuring.  Although in competitive competitions Spain have only won 1 out of the 9 games, with Italy winning 5 games.  Spain will be confident going into this match as they’ve not lost to the Italians in the last 4 occasions.  Italy will be missing the midfield pairing of Pirlo and Gattuso through suspension whereas Spain had the luxury of resting the first team in their last game. 

Euro 2008 betting tip:  Italy scraped through the group stages but they have shown that they have the mental toughness for the big games.  Spain have been on fire with the two strikers Villa and Torres putting on a master class performance up front and they should give the Italian defence a torrid time today.  But I’m leaning towards the World Champions to qualify, with no creativity in midfield they will set out to frustrate Spain today and I can see this game going to extra time and penalties.  It’s a tough one but I will go for Italy to qualify at odds of 2.16 on Betfair. 

Luca Toni has had so many chances to score this tournament surely he’ll have to score before it’s too late??  Well this is the ideal time to do it, go for him to score at anytime at odds of 3.15.

Also go for a small bet on the ‘method of victory market’, Italy to win on penalties looks like a tempting 11.0 odds, after tipping this, the game will probably over in the first 5 minutes!!

UPDATE: (Spain 0-0 Italy * Spain win on penalties) - It was difficult to watch this match without wanting to turn over to watch Taggart on ITV instead, for a neutral this quarter final didn’t live up to the excitement of the other three.  Another night of losing bets, I made a mistake and should of also tipped to back Spain  to win on penalties in the method of victory market, this would of covered all losing bets tonight.  Hopefully everyone isn’t down too much, it’s good that there’s a few days rest, it should give some time to try and pick some winners for the semi finals!!

The third quarter final and for many football fans this match will clash with the television programme River Cottage Spring on Channel 4, it’s a hard decision, but watching the football just edges it for me (only because I have to of course).

Holland v Russia

This is the quarter final match I’ve been most looking forward to and what I think will be the most interesting.  Guus Hiddink will come up against the side he led to the semi finals at World ‘98 and another thing everyone must know already, he’s also a Dutchman.  The dutch have one 4 out of the 8 matches they have played against Russia, with the Russians winning 2 and the other two matches were draws.  Holland have scored 9 goals already in this tournament and there looks to be much more to come by the way they played against the likes of France .  The Russians will be on high after the victory against the Swedes, but can this young squad hold keep their calm and beat an on form Dutch team?

Euro 2008 Betting update:Yesterday saw me ignoring my pre-match write up and backing Croatia against a Turkish team with alot of character.  Today two of the teams I’ve tipped to shine at Euro 2008 play each other, so at least I can be right one way or another!!!  Hiddink has already said reaching the quarter finals is great progress for Russia, so is he seeing the semi finals as a step too far?  The Russian defence is a little suspect and the goalkeeper even more so, if both teams attack like they have in past games then I can see goals in this game, go for a small bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.02 on Betfair.  I’m going to have to take a risk and back Russia to win, go small at odds of around 5.5 on Betfair (but knowing how my luck has changed in a matter of a day it will probably all go wrong again!!!).  Russia are also available to qualify for the semi finals at odds of 3.35, go with that if you think it won’t be done in 90 minutes and you think(hope)I’m right!!!

UPDATE- (Holland 1-3 Russia *after ET) A deserved victory for Russia, Holland didn’t play throughout the 90 minutes.  It looked to me that the Dutch resting  players in the previous game acted as a disadvantage to them, they looked a little rusty and not able to play their free flowing football.  Although Russia progress, this game still gave me two losing bets, with no over 2.5 goals and no win over the 90 minutes.  I didn’t back them in the ‘to qualify market’ but I hope someone reading did and made some profit, I really hate extra time and penalties!!!  On the whole it was still a good night, Russia get to the semi-finals and their odds on the Betfair outright market have been cut down to 5.2. 

It’s Friday and the second quarter final out of four is being played tonight and I bet you are all hungry for a bit of Turkey action.  Despite the French crashing out of the competition the other night it’s good to know that manager Raymond Domenech has his priorities right, what’s one of the first things he did after the match?  No… he didn’t phone up to register his vote for the Big Brother eviction…but he of course proposed to his girlfriend!!!  Who’s said the love of the beautiful game is lost??

 Croatia v Turkey

Croatia can go into this match with confidence, they are unbeaten in the last 3 games against the Turkish, with one win and two draws.  Croatia beat Turkey in Euro ‘96 at the group stage, Bilic was playing in that team that day.  Turkey showed great battling qualities in their last game and Croatia will have to make sure to kill the game off to stop the Turkish from making a comeback.  An interesting stat is Turkey have picked up the most cards in the tournament, with 1 red and 10 yellow, so it might be worth looking at the bookings market to bet on.

Euro 2008 Betting tip:  This is very tough math to call, you cannot underestimate the Turkish, they have shocked alot of people by making it far in World Cup and once again at Euro 2008 they have shown alot of character and good football.  Croatia are at odds of 1.88 to win this match and Turkey at a massive 5.1.  But saying all that I will be backing Croatia tonight to get to the semi-finals, Bilic has shown that he is a very clever manager so far and of course I have to back the team I’ve tipped from the start of the tournament!!.   Either back Croatia to win at 1.88 or to qualify at 1.47, I hope I’m right!!!  Also it looks certain that at least one Turkish player will get a card, go for Tuncay to be yellow carded, no odds available on Betfair yet(or pick any other player!!!).  Small update- haven’t had time to get Tuncay added to the shown a card market, so go with midfielder Mehmet Topal to be booked at odds of 3.0.

UPDATE- (Croatia 1-1 Turkey, *Turkey win on penalties)  In the end Croatia were dumped out of Euro 2008  by Turkey just like a Big Brother contestant kicked out of the house for threatening behaviour.  After missing great chances in the first half, I always feared for Croatia, as the experts always say….you need to take your chances when you are on top and Croatia didn’t do that.  With 1 minute to go in extra time it looked like the bet for Croatia to qualify would be a winner, but things change quickly in football!!!  It seems that little bit of luck deserted us on the night, especially with Tuncay getting booked as predicted (27 minutes), unfortunately I had to change the bet as I had no time to get him on the ‘Shown a card market’.   Well maybe I should of taken note of my pre-match write up and  ‘never understimate’ the Turkish….it cost us the winning bets on the night!!!

The knockout stages begin today and this is where the tension starts to really build….especially when you’ve bet on the matches!!

Portugal v Germany

Two of the tournament favourites meet each other in this quarter final, one thing for certain is that one will be going home tonight.  Lets hope it’s not too long a night, I need to get some sleep!! The German’s have injury doubts to key players Podolski and Frings, whereas Portugal havethe luxury of  recalling the players that they rested.  Both of these teams have met each other 15 times, the Germans have won the majority of games with 7 wins, Portugal only have three wins.  In  Euro 2000 Portugal beat an average German team 3-0.

Euro 2008 Quarter final (1) betting tip:  Tipping a winner is a little more difficult in this knockout situation as any bets to back a match winner are over 90 minutes not incuding extra time and penalties.  I’m tempted to go with Germany to win this match, they have the experience and know how in these situations.  Portugal are favourites to win this match and based on past tournaments they are looking more likley to progress compared to Germany.  It all depends on whether Germany can call upon Podolski and Frings, if they can, then I think they have a chance.  I’ll back them to win the match at odds of 3.35 on Betfair, or you can bet on them to qualify at odds of 2.34 if you are a little hesistant.

UPDATE- ( Portugal 2-3 Germany ) Portugal fans will be shouting what a load of Ballacks!! Germany knock the match favourites out and anyone who loves football and goals must of been thrilled by this match.  Of course the enjoyment is helped when you have a winning bet on the match!! At odds of 3.35 it was a bargain of a price to back an experienced German team.  Maybe after this game Real Madrid will get a small discount on Ronaldo’s transfer value from Manchester United??!!

Wednesday sees the last of the group games being played, which means knockout football after this…which means….the possibility of penalties!!! 

Greece v Spain
Russia v Sweden

Spain have already qualified and Greece have already been knocked out of the competition, so that means the Russia match is the game to watch today.  A draw will see Sweden qualify, Russia need to get all three points to get to the quarter finals.  Out of the 23 times they have both played each other, Sweden have won 7 times, Russia 8 times and the draw has occurred 8 times.  The last competitive match was at USA ‘94, Sweden win the game 3-1.  

Euro 2008 betting tip:  So one of the teams I tipped to win Euro 2008 a few weeks back will be going out today, so which one will I be backing?  It’s a tough one, Sweden have past experience to draw upon, but Russia can welcome back their captain Arshavin to their team and also have the experience of Hiddink.  Back them to win on Betfair at odds of 2.82.  Also small on Arshavin to score at anytime at odds of 4.2.

UPDATE:  (Russia 2-0 Sweden) Well what a fantastic performance from Russia, playing at a fast pace and never giving Sweden any breathing space in the first 30 minutes.  2 out of tow winning bets tonight, courtesy of backing Russia to win and danger man Arshavin scoring on 66 minutes.  4.2 odds for him to score at anytime is the biggest priced winner we’ve had so far, hopefully those small bet will start to come off!!  The other match saw Spain 2-1 against Greece