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Germany v Spain

The Spanish have played Germany 19 times, winning 5 games and losing 8.  In the big tournaments Spain have only beaten Germany once in 5 tries, losing 3 times.  Spain will be without David Villa, who looks likely to be replaced by Arsenal’s Fabregas .  Although Villa is a fantastic player, for me it was a blessing in disguise when Aragones was forced to replace him with Fabregas in the semi-finals.  Fabregas was the key to opening up the Russian defence and playing tomorrow will give Spain a more attacking threat from midfield.  Germany on the other hand may be without Ballack through an injury he picked up in training, a big loss as he’s one of the players they have really been relying on in this tournament.  Can Spain win the European Championship for the second time?  Or will Germany finish the job to add to their 3 Euro titles?  Spain are the favourites to win this match in 90 minutes at 2..4 odds and Germany are priced at 3.45 on Betfair.

Euro 2008 Final Betting tips:The Germans have scored 10 goals so far in Euro 2008 but their dodgy defence has conceded 6 and Spain have scored 11 goals in total.  Finals are usually very cagey and dull affairs but I will take a risk and back ‘Over 2.5 goals’ for the final at odds of 2.32.  To cover this bet I’m also looking at a 0-0 scoreline at halftime at odds of 2.52, just like it has been in the last three Euro finals, or if you want to take a little less risk go for the draw at half time at around 2.1.

Podolski will be doing everything he can to score today, if he does he will come level with David Villa with 4 tournament goals and he’ll share the golden boot.  Back him to score at anytime at odds of 3.85 on Betfair.

For a bit of fun, back Schweinsteiger and Fabregas in the First goal scorer market at odds of around 17.5 and 13.0. 

So you probably want to know who I think will win today?? Well if I you really want me to make a decision…..then I’ll be backing Germany to win it outright, but don’t blame me if they don’t!!

Remember if you haven’t already, claim your FREE £25Bet from Betfair and William Hill today so you can bet on the final and hopefully make some money!!!  Just click on the banners, sign up and deposit £25, then you’ll get your free bet, easy!!!

UPDATE:  (Germany 0-1 Spain)  It was Spain all the way in this final and the ordinary German team looked like they ran out of luck in the end.  The 1 goal doesn’t tell the story of the final, Spain were in control and their defence were never troubled by Germany.  Unfortunately none of the tips came off in this final, making me feel as sick as a German football fan!!!  But don’t worry just like Spain, I’ll hopefully shed my under achiever tag soon..!! 

Russia v Spain

The teams have played each other 9 times, with Spain winning 5 times and Russia only the one time.  The latest victory for Spain of course came in Euro 2008 with a 4-1 win.   The 1 time Russia beat Spain, was in 1971 with a 2-1 victory.  There’s no doubt that Spain have the more experienced side, Russia have the youngest squad in the whole tournament, averaging at 26 years old.  So these two teams meet again, will this be a repeat of the group game? Or can Russia turn it around?  Russia have improved as the tournament have gone on, whereas Spain have been consistently playing well.  The Russian defence will always be a little suspect to me, especially with the strike duo of Torres and Villa up front for Spain.  But this this match will be different, Arshavin will play and I’m sure Hiddink will try to correct the defensive problems he saw when they last played.  I think that this match will be much closer than before.

Euro 2008 semi final betting tip:  Spain are at quite big odds to win the match at 2.16, considering they beat Russia 4-1 already over a week ago.  I would of thought the odds of over 2.5 goals in this match would be pretty low based on the attacking and free flowing football both teams have played so far, but you can get odds of 2.3 for over 2.5 goals on Betfair.  My heart says to go with Russia the team I backed at the start of the tournament, but my head tells me that Spain will be the ones that qualify at the end of the night….which do I listen to?  Anyone who has backed Russia to win the tournament may want to trade out to get a guaranteed return, or lay Russia to qualify so they don’t lose too much if they go out today.

I’ll be following my heart and backing Russia, surely a quick route to the poor house!!  A small bet on Pavlyuchenko  to score at anytime odds of 3.65 on Betfair.  Also go small on Russia to be winning at half time, odds of 4.8. Although I think it will be a tight game, lets go with over 2.5 goals as it looks value at odds of 2.3.

UPDATE: (Russia 0-3 Spain)- Spain come out deserved winners in this game and were just too good for the Russians.  Russia never came out to play like they did against the Dutch, getting to the final was one step too far for this young squad.  In hindsight I should of traded out my bet of backing Russia to win the tournament to get guaranteed profit, I hope you took my advice!!   The to score at anytime bet never came off and neither did the Russia to lead at half time bet.  Luckily over 2.5 goals were reached and we covered the losses on these fun bets.  A lesson to learn, don’t let your heart rule your head when betting.

Germany v Turkey

Germany have played the Turkish 17 times , winning 11 times and only losing three games.  But Turkey can take heart as they’re unbeaten in 3 successive games against the Germans with two wins and a draw.  Turkey might struggle to field a team with Tuncay Sanli, Arda Turan, Emre Asik suspended and goalkeeper Demirel serving his 2nd match ban for a red card, as well as injuries to contend with.  With only 15 players to choose from, surely Turkey can’t beat the Germans??  Well we would be foolish to write off the comeback kings who have found themselves behind in 4 games but have still managed to win 2 games and get a  draw.   The Germans have been solid in this tournament, just like a well oiled machine they’ve produced good performances when necessary, especially against the Portuguese which won us our bet at odds of 3.35.

Euro 2008 betting tips- This is a very difficult bet for me, Turkey have so many players out due to suspension and injuries, but what we’ve learnt so far is that the Turkish always have that will to win, no matter the circumstances.  In my opinion this is a match of two teams that should never be written off!!  My prediction is that Germany will get to the final especially now they have Frings back fully fit, whether it’s done in 90 minutes is anyone’s guess!!  Lets hope the match doesn’t go on for too long, it is a school night after all!! Although I get the feeling that tonight could be the late late show by the Germans.  The odds for the Germans to win in 90 minutes is 1.46 and 1.23 to qualify.

The main bets today are on the draw at half time at odds of around 2.46 and also back the 1-0 to Germany scoreline at halftime, odds are 3.55.  But the 1-0 to Turkey scoreline at halftime looks tempting at 11.5!!

I’ll be going with a few fun bets today, so bet accordingly.  With so many players out for Turkey, Fatih Terim will be looking to make a sparse amount of substitutions, bet on Germany in the ‘First Substitution’ market at odds of 1.81 on Betfair.  Knowing my luck Turkey will have to make a substitution after 1 minute due to injury!!

Also back Bastian Schweinsteiger to be shown a yellow card at odds of 3.45, I’m hoping he’ll have a crazy moment just like the Croatia match!!

I’m also thinking of backing Ballack to score at anytime, 3.25 looks quite tempting, he’s always performed in the big games for club and country.  There’s alot of bets today, so make sure to bet small amounts or sign up to get your FREE bet from Betfair!!

UPDATE:  (Germany 3-2 Turkey) It was the game everyone predicted, very tight, boring and not many goals!!!  When Turkey came back at 2-2 with four minutes to go, I thought lightning was going to stike again, but the only lightning that struck was the one which effected the pictures for the whole world in the second half.  Turkey never gave up and the Germans can count themselves lucky with the performance they put in.  When it comes to situations like this, the Germans always have the mentatlity to get the right result.  As I predicted Germany left it late, I hope you backed the Germans to qualify/win in 90 minutes like I said, if you did then you are much more braver than me!!

Not a bad night for betting, backing the draw at half time came off and we also won the bet for Germany to make the first substitution at 1.81, which came just at the start of the 2nd half.  Unfortuantely Schweinsteiger was on his best behaviour tonight, and there was only one yellow card in this game!!

Obviously the description is a little out of date and should read Christiano Ronaldo: The story so far- still at Manchester United but will do anything to get his dream move to Real Madrid.  Featuring contributions from a fuming Alex Ferguson and a raging Wayne Rooney.  Not suitable for children, contains strong language and violence.

Spain v Italy

Head to head the two teams are close, out of 27 occasions Spain have won 8 times and Italy winning 9 times and 10 draws occuring.  Although in competitive competitions Spain have only won 1 out of the 9 games, with Italy winning 5 games.  Spain will be confident going into this match as they’ve not lost to the Italians in the last 4 occasions.  Italy will be missing the midfield pairing of Pirlo and Gattuso through suspension whereas Spain had the luxury of resting the first team in their last game. 

Euro 2008 betting tip:  Italy scraped through the group stages but they have shown that they have the mental toughness for the big games.  Spain have been on fire with the two strikers Villa and Torres putting on a master class performance up front and they should give the Italian defence a torrid time today.  But I’m leaning towards the World Champions to qualify, with no creativity in midfield they will set out to frustrate Spain today and I can see this game going to extra time and penalties.  It’s a tough one but I will go for Italy to qualify at odds of 2.16 on Betfair. 

Luca Toni has had so many chances to score this tournament surely he’ll have to score before it’s too late??  Well this is the ideal time to do it, go for him to score at anytime at odds of 3.15.

Also go for a small bet on the ‘method of victory market’, Italy to win on penalties looks like a tempting 11.0 odds, after tipping this, the game will probably over in the first 5 minutes!!

UPDATE: (Spain 0-0 Italy * Spain win on penalties) - It was difficult to watch this match without wanting to turn over to watch Taggart on ITV instead, for a neutral this quarter final didn’t live up to the excitement of the other three.  Another night of losing bets, I made a mistake and should of also tipped to back Spain  to win on penalties in the method of victory market, this would of covered all losing bets tonight.  Hopefully everyone isn’t down too much, it’s good that there’s a few days rest, it should give some time to try and pick some winners for the semi finals!!

Holland v Russia

This is the quarter final match I’ve been most looking forward to and what I think will be the most interesting.  Guus Hiddink will come up against the side he led to the semi finals at World ‘98 and another thing everyone must know already, he’s also a Dutchman.  The dutch have one 4 out of the 8 matches they have played against Russia, with the Russians winning 2 and the other two matches were draws.  Holland have scored 9 goals already in this tournament and there looks to be much more to come by the way they played against the likes of France .  The Russians will be on high after the victory against the Swedes, but can this young squad hold keep their calm and beat an on form Dutch team?

Euro 2008 Betting update:Yesterday saw me ignoring my pre-match write up and backing Croatia against a Turkish team with alot of character.  Today two of the teams I’ve tipped to shine at Euro 2008 play each other, so at least I can be right one way or another!!!  Hiddink has already said reaching the quarter finals is great progress for Russia, so is he seeing the semi finals as a step too far?  The Russian defence is a little suspect and the goalkeeper even more so, if both teams attack like they have in past games then I can see goals in this game, go for a small bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.02 on Betfair.  I’m going to have to take a risk and back Russia to win, go small at odds of around 5.5 on Betfair (but knowing how my luck has changed in a matter of a day it will probably all go wrong again!!!).  Russia are also available to qualify for the semi finals at odds of 3.35, go with that if you think it won’t be done in 90 minutes and you think(hope)I’m right!!!

UPDATE- (Holland 1-3 Russia *after ET) A deserved victory for Russia, Holland didn’t play throughout the 90 minutes.  It looked to me that the Dutch resting  players in the previous game acted as a disadvantage to them, they looked a little rusty and not able to play their free flowing football.  Although Russia progress, this game still gave me two losing bets, with no over 2.5 goals and no win over the 90 minutes.  I didn’t back them in the ‘to qualify market’ but I hope someone reading did and made some profit, I really hate extra time and penalties!!!  On the whole it was still a good night, Russia get to the semi-finals and their odds on the Betfair outright market have been cut down to 5.2. 

 Croatia v Turkey

Croatia can go into this match with confidence, they are unbeaten in the last 3 games against the Turkish, with one win and two draws.  Croatia beat Turkey in Euro ‘96 at the group stage, Bilic was playing in that team that day.  Turkey showed great battling qualities in their last game and Croatia will have to make sure to kill the game off to stop the Turkish from making a comeback.  An interesting stat is Turkey have picked up the most cards in the tournament, with 1 red and 10 yellow, so it might be worth looking at the bookings market to bet on.

Euro 2008 Betting tip:  This is very tough math to call, you cannot underestimate the Turkish, they have shocked alot of people by making it far in World Cup and once again at Euro 2008 they have shown alot of character and good football.  Croatia are at odds of 1.88 to win this match and Turkey at a massive 5.1.  But saying all that I will be backing Croatia tonight to get to the semi-finals, Bilic has shown that he is a very clever manager so far and of course I have to back the team I’ve tipped from the start of the tournament!!.   Either back Croatia to win at 1.88 or to qualify at 1.47, I hope I’m right!!!  Also it looks certain that at least one Turkish player will get a card, go for Tuncay to be yellow carded, no odds available on Betfair yet(or pick any other player!!!).  Small update- haven’t had time to get Tuncay added to the shown a card market, so go with midfielder Mehmet Topal to be booked at odds of 3.0.

UPDATE- (Croatia 1-1 Turkey, *Turkey win on penalties)  In the end Croatia were dumped out of Euro 2008  by Turkey just like a Big Brother contestant kicked out of the house for threatening behaviour.  After missing great chances in the first half, I always feared for Croatia, as the experts always say….you need to take your chances when you are on top and Croatia didn’t do that.  With 1 minute to go in extra time it looked like the bet for Croatia to qualify would be a winner, but things change quickly in football!!!  It seems that little bit of luck deserted us on the night, especially with Tuncay getting booked as predicted (27 minutes), unfortunately I had to change the bet as I had no time to get him on the ‘Shown a card market’.   Well maybe I should of taken note of my pre-match write up and  ‘never understimate’ the Turkish….it cost us the winning bets on the night!!!

Portugal v Germany

Two of the tournament favourites meet each other in this quarter final, one thing for certain is that one will be going home tonight.  Lets hope it’s not too long a night, I need to get some sleep!! The German’s have injury doubts to key players Podolski and Frings, whereas Portugal havethe luxury of  recalling the players that they rested.  Both of these teams have met each other 15 times, the Germans have won the majority of games with 7 wins, Portugal only have three wins.  In  Euro 2000 Portugal beat an average German team 3-0.

Euro 2008 Quarter final (1) betting tip:  Tipping a winner is a little more difficult in this knockout situation as any bets to back a match winner are over 90 minutes not incuding extra time and penalties.  I’m tempted to go with Germany to win this match, they have the experience and know how in these situations.  Portugal are favourites to win this match and based on past tournaments they are looking more likley to progress compared to Germany.  It all depends on whether Germany can call upon Podolski and Frings, if they can, then I think they have a chance.  I’ll back them to win the match at odds of 3.35 on Betfair, or you can bet on them to qualify at odds of 2.34 if you are a little hesistant.

UPDATE- ( Portugal 2-3 Germany ) Portugal fans will be shouting what a load of Ballacks!! Germany knock the match favourites out and anyone who loves football and goals must of been thrilled by this match.  Of course the enjoyment is helped when you have a winning bet on the match!! At odds of 3.35 it was a bargain of a price to back an experienced German team.  Maybe after this game Real Madrid will get a small discount on Ronaldo’s transfer value from Manchester United??!!

Greece v Spain
Russia v Sweden

Spain have already qualified and Greece have already been knocked out of the competition, so that means the Russia match is the game to watch today.  A draw will see Sweden qualify, Russia need to get all three points to get to the quarter finals.  Out of the 23 times they have both played each other, Sweden have won 7 times, Russia 8 times and the draw has occurred 8 times.  The last competitive match was at USA ‘94, Sweden win the game 3-1.  

Euro 2008 betting tip:  So one of the teams I tipped to win Euro 2008 a few weeks back will be going out today, so which one will I be backing?  It’s a tough one, Sweden have past experience to draw upon, but Russia can welcome back their captain Arshavin to their team and also have the experience of Hiddink.  Back them to win on Betfair at odds of 2.82.  Also small on Arshavin to score at anytime at odds of 4.2.

UPDATE:  (Russia 2-0 Sweden) Well what a fantastic performance from Russia, playing at a fast pace and never giving Sweden any breathing space in the first 30 minutes.  2 out of tow winning bets tonight, courtesy of backing Russia to win and danger man Arshavin scoring on 66 minutes.  4.2 odds for him to score at anytime is the biggest priced winner we’ve had so far, hopefully those small bet will start to come off!!  The other match saw Spain 2-1 against Greece

France v Italy-  A replay of the last World Cup final, with both teams looking a shadow of the teams they were 2 years ago.  Both teams will be relying on the Dutch to get beat the Romanians to have a chance a qualifying.  Italy could get through with a draw and other complicated scenarios, whereas all the French need to do is win (easy isn’t it?!!).  The teams have played each other 35 times in total with Italy winning 17 of these games and France only winning 8.  France beat Italy in Euro 2000 2-1, scoring the Golden Goal to knock Italy out. 

Euro 2008 Betting tip-  I really don’t have a clue what this result will be, I only know that there will be blood, sweat and tears tonight!!! So I will be going for for the ‘Show an card market’ on Betfair.  Makelele and Gattuso are one yellow card from suspension, but that won’t mean they will be on their best behaviour tonight!!  I’m thinking both players will be needed to make crucial tackles and one wrong challenge will land them in the book.  Back both to be yellow carded at 2.8 and 2.6 odds on the Betfair. 

UPDATE- (France 0-2 Italy)Well in the end it wasn’t quite the game that we thought it would be, with Ribery off and France down to 10 men, that action wasn’t exactly end to end and fast paced.  We win our bet for Gattuso being shown a card, a little consolation after 3 losing bets today.  It’s a shame because I was thinking of backing a red card to be show at 3.15 odds.   

Holland v Romania-  Holland will be fielding a few of their squad players after assuring qualification.  If Romania win this match, then they will qualify at the expense of Italy and France.  The Dutch have beaten the Romania 60% of the time they played each other, with Romania only winning 1 game.

Euro 2008 Betting tip-  This is another game giving me headache!!  Will Holland let Romania win so that two of their fiercest rivals drop out?  Or will they go out for the win tonight?  I don’t know!!! Does anyone?  We know Holland have qualified and will rotate the team, but they still have impressive players.  I’ll go with a small bet on Romania to do it tonight, qualification is in their hands and they should give this game a good go tonight.  They are currently at 2.44 odds to win tonight.

UPDATE-  (Holland 2-0 Romania) Of course Holland won, who could of ever doubted they would??  Another small bet that didn’t pay off, dissapointing but nothing much lost.