01/05/2008 Betting Update-At last!!!  Some winning bets.  The tips to back Chelsea & Man Utd to reach the final paid off(with a little bit of luck).  After two weeks of losers in the Premiership it’s good to get some winning tips in.  With Chelsea to qualify at 1.88 and United to qualify at odds of 1.6 on Betfair, it wasn’t fantastic value, but hopefully it has landed some of you some profit.  Betting on the two in a double at 3.15 to be the finalists was the more value bet and another winner!!

Liverpool v Chelsea

Liverpool play Chelsea for the fourth successive season in the Champions League tonight and with Torres describing tonight’s match as a potential ‘bore’, it may not be a coincidence that the BBC are showing ‘Waking the Dead’ at 9pm tonight.  So who will win?   Well it’s a very tight one to call, with both teams familiar with each other’s style of play and both managers under some sort of pressure.  Benitez seems to have the edge over Grant tactically and the records show that the Champions League is becoming his specialist subject.  Alot has been said about Grant not winning the ‘big games’ but he proved alot of critics wrong by beating Arsenal in the league.

Betting tip: Liverpool had that little bit of extra luck against Arsenal in the quarter finals and are always a different class in Europe, but something tells me that over two legs Chelsea can make it through to the final.  No doubt a ’special’ effort will be made after Roman reminds everyone that the final is in Russia.  Back Chelsea to go through to the final: 1.88 on Betfair.

Barcelona v Man Utd

Many neutrals have said this is the game that draws their attention, both teams unbeaten in the Champions League and a delight to watch when firing on all cylinders.   Although I’m not too sure whether Ferguson will allow for such an open game as expected.  I will be surprised if Hargreaves doesn’t start the match (if fit), he’ll be important to cut out and break up any Barca attacks.  Ferguson for me is more tactically astute than Rijkaard and this gives the edge to Man Utd, Barca have been pretty poor this season in the league but they have put in some good performances in the Champions League.

Betting tip: Go for Man Utd to get to the finals(1.6 on Betfair).  Also put a bet to nominate the finalists: Chelsea and Man Utd at 3.15.

This week the words extinguished, chaos and anger were prominent in the news headlines (and those were just the ones related to Arsenal’s season..only joking Arsenal fans, just like Konnie Huq with the Olympic torch I’m sure they’ll pick themselves up and finish the season in style).  The weekend’s Premiership fixture list doesn’t really inspire me in terms of betting,

Portsmouth v Newcastle- Pompey will be looking to get their first double win over over Newcastle in the league.  In running betters will be interested in backing Pompey if they score first, they have a 100% win record when scoring first in games this season.

Betting tip: Defoe will be back in the starting line up after missing the last two games and he will be itching to play and score.  The Newcastle defence will surely give him a chance over 90 minutes, go for a bet on Defoe to be first goal scorer and anytime scorer on Betfair (odds of 5.6 & 2.56).

Tottenham v Middlesbrough- Middlesbrough haven’t won at Spurs in the league since 2002.  But they have shown that they can upset the big boys like Arsenal and Man Utd this season.  Spurs have been inconsistent ever since the Carling Cup win and with the odds of 1.72 for them to win at home, it doesn’t provide too much value.

Betting tip: Do a small bet on a Pompey and Spurs double, currently 3.82 on Betfair. 

Also a cheeky bet on Woodgate to score against his old club at anytime, 12-1 odds on William Hills. An great offer for new customers, get a £25 free bet, if Woody scores, you’ll make £300 out of nothing!! See the banner below. 

Man Utd v Arsenal-the big Sunday game, both teams will be needing a win to get things back on track.  I’m adamant Arsenal will do anything they can to spoil Manchester United’s season.

Prediction:  This could end up as a draw just like when they played at the Emirates, letting Chelsea take advantage.  I’m going for the draw and 2-2- score prediction.

UPDATE:  Well as William Gallas would put it- luck deserted us.  After a few weeks of winning tips, none of the bets came through for us this weekend.  No goals were scored in the Pompey match, Jonathan scored in the Spurs match but it was the wrong one (Grounds) and the Man Utd match nearly produced the  2-2 draw I predicted (’hands up’ if you thought it was a great goal from Adebayor?).  Only small bets were advised, so hopefully not too much was lost and lets look on the bright side, it could of been worse….we might have backed Derby to win at home!!

Barclays Premier League

Birmingham 1-1 Everton
Bolton 1-0 West Ham
Derby 0-6 Aston Villa
Portsmouth 0-0 Newcastle
Reading 0-2 Fulham
Sunderland 1-2 Man City
Tottenham 1-1 Middlesbrough
Liverpool 3-1 Blackburn
Man Utd v Arsenal

So after a week which brought us April fools (no not Nicklas Bendtner) and great Champions League matches(the Coca Cola kid Kazim Richards proving that fizzy drinks can give you that extra pop!!), it’s back to the Premiership. 

Arsenal v Liverpool-Saturday at noon brings us the second of the trilogy of games between Arsenal and Liverpool.  Lets hope the three games follow the standard of the older Star Wars trilogy with Harrison Ford rather than newer trilogy with Jar Jar Binks!! (Please note: no comparisons are being made between Jar Jar Binks, Chewbacca and any Liverpool or Arsenal players).  There’s a possibility that both teams will settle for the draw, especially if both sets of players and managers have one eye on the big game next week. 

Prediction: I don’t see Liverpool winning this game and with Arsenal unbeaten at home this season, the draw or lay of Liverpool looks to be the best bet. 

UPDATE: WINNING bet, a poor start to the game meant that it was a struggle to watch this reserve match, Liverpool deserved the lead and could of snatched it at the end with Voronin.  But 1-1 gave us a good start to the weekend!!

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This weeks it’s the Champions League quarter finals:

Roma v Man Utd
Schalke 04 v Barcelona
Arsenal v Liverpool
Fenerbahce v Chelsea

Looking at the above fixtures, the majority of people may choose to back all the favourites to make the semis:  Man Utd, Barca, Arsenal and Chelsea.  Although I’m not 100% convinced that will happen.  The tie that most football fans will be interested in is between Arsenal and Liverpool. 

Betting Tip: Liverpool look to be a totally different team in Europe and I think that over two legs they’ll have a slight advantage over Arsenal and book their place into the semi-finals.  Back Liverpool to qualify on Betfair currently at 2.08.

UPDATE: Winning Champions league bet- In the end Liverpool had the quality and luck to get through to the semi finals, proving once again in Europe they are a different class compared to when they play in the Premiership.  A big thanks goes to Babel and Gerrard (and of course Toure!!) for doubling our money.

The Man Utd and Barcelona games raise a slight doubt for me.  Man Utd have played Roma four times in two years losing only one game, but Roma must still be thinking about revenge after the 7-1 thrashing they received last season.  Barcelona are going through are very bad patch at the moment, surrendering a 2 goal advantage last weekend isn’t ideal preparation and with key players such as Messi missing, this tie won’t be as easy as it looks.   But Barcelona did prove against Celtic that they can turn on the style when necessary.

Chelsea playing away to Fenerbache in the first leg is a big advantage for them, there’s always a hostile atmosphere when teams play in Turkey.  So getting this game out of the way first and then playing at the fortress Stamford bridge should allow them to book their passage safely through.

Predicted semi-finalists:

Man Utd, Barcelona, Liverpool, Chelsea

UPDATED:  All four of the semi-finalists were predicted correctly, if only I could do the same with the weekly lottery numbers!!

Just for fun prediction:

Roma, Schalke, Liverpool, Chelsea

UK Soccer Shop have some special Champions League discount codes (expires 6th April midnight ) to use at their store to buy football shirts, boots etc…  Use the banner below to get to their store, here are the codes:

OFFER:  £5 off all orders over £50
CODE: CL5

OFFER:  £10 off all orders over £100
CODE: CL10

Tottenham vs. Newcastle:  The battle of the two under performing teams today in the league, Ramos has won 9 out of 20 matches and Keegan has won 1 out of 9.  Newcastle have had a good record over Spurs lately, winning the last 4 consecutive games against Spurs.  

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