It’s Friday and the second quarter final out of four is being played tonight and I bet you are all hungry for a bit of Turkey action.  Despite the French crashing out of the competition the other night it’s good to know that manager Raymond Domenech has his priorities right, what’s one of the first things he did after the match?  No… he didn’t phone up to register his vote for the Big Brother eviction…but he of course proposed to his girlfriend!!!  Who’s said the love of the beautiful game is lost??

 Croatia v Turkey

Croatia can go into this match with confidence, they are unbeaten in the last 3 games against the Turkish, with one win and two draws.  Croatia beat Turkey in Euro ‘96 at the group stage, Bilic was playing in that team that day.  Turkey showed great battling qualities in their last game and Croatia will have to make sure to kill the game off to stop the Turkish from making a comeback.  An interesting stat is Turkey have picked up the most cards in the tournament, with 1 red and 10 yellow, so it might be worth looking at the bookings market to bet on.

Euro 2008 Betting tip:  This is very tough math to call, you cannot underestimate the Turkish, they have shocked alot of people by making it far in World Cup and once again at Euro 2008 they have shown alot of character and good football.  Croatia are at odds of 1.88 to win this match and Turkey at a massive 5.1.  But saying all that I will be backing Croatia tonight to get to the semi-finals, Bilic has shown that he is a very clever manager so far and of course I have to back the team I’ve tipped from the start of the tournament!!.   Either back Croatia to win at 1.88 or to qualify at 1.47, I hope I’m right!!!  Also it looks certain that at least one Turkish player will get a card, go for Tuncay to be yellow carded, no odds available on Betfair yet(or pick any other player!!!).  Small update- haven’t had time to get Tuncay added to the shown a card market, so go with midfielder Mehmet Topal to be booked at odds of 3.0.

UPDATE- (Croatia 1-1 Turkey, *Turkey win on penalties)  In the end Croatia were dumped out of Euro 2008  by Turkey just like a Big Brother contestant kicked out of the house for threatening behaviour.  After missing great chances in the first half, I always feared for Croatia, as the experts always say….you need to take your chances when you are on top and Croatia didn’t do that.  With 1 minute to go in extra time it looked like the bet for Croatia to qualify would be a winner, but things change quickly in football!!!  It seems that little bit of luck deserted us on the night, especially with Tuncay getting booked as predicted (27 minutes), unfortunately I had to change the bet as I had no time to get him on the ‘Shown a card market’.   Well maybe I should of taken note of my pre-match write up and  ‘never understimate’ the Turkish….it cost us the winning bets on the night!!!

The knockout stages begin today and this is where the tension starts to really build….especially when you’ve bet on the matches!!

Portugal v Germany

Two of the tournament favourites meet each other in this quarter final, one thing for certain is that one will be going home tonight.  Lets hope it’s not too long a night, I need to get some sleep!! The German’s have injury doubts to key players Podolski and Frings, whereas Portugal havethe luxury of  recalling the players that they rested.  Both of these teams have met each other 15 times, the Germans have won the majority of games with 7 wins, Portugal only have three wins.  In  Euro 2000 Portugal beat an average German team 3-0.

Euro 2008 Quarter final (1) betting tip:  Tipping a winner is a little more difficult in this knockout situation as any bets to back a match winner are over 90 minutes not incuding extra time and penalties.  I’m tempted to go with Germany to win this match, they have the experience and know how in these situations.  Portugal are favourites to win this match and based on past tournaments they are looking more likley to progress compared to Germany.  It all depends on whether Germany can call upon Podolski and Frings, if they can, then I think they have a chance.  I’ll back them to win the match at odds of 3.35 on Betfair, or you can bet on them to qualify at odds of 2.34 if you are a little hesistant.

UPDATE- ( Portugal 2-3 Germany ) Portugal fans will be shouting what a load of Ballacks!! Germany knock the match favourites out and anyone who loves football and goals must of been thrilled by this match.  Of course the enjoyment is helped when you have a winning bet on the match!! At odds of 3.35 it was a bargain of a price to back an experienced German team.  Maybe after this game Real Madrid will get a small discount on Ronaldo’s transfer value from Manchester United??!!

Wednesday sees the last of the group games being played, which means knockout football after this…which means….the possibility of penalties!!! 

Greece v Spain
Russia v Sweden

Spain have already qualified and Greece have already been knocked out of the competition, so that means the Russia match is the game to watch today.  A draw will see Sweden qualify, Russia need to get all three points to get to the quarter finals.  Out of the 23 times they have both played each other, Sweden have won 7 times, Russia 8 times and the draw has occurred 8 times.  The last competitive match was at USA ‘94, Sweden win the game 3-1.  

Euro 2008 betting tip:  So one of the teams I tipped to win Euro 2008 a few weeks back will be going out today, so which one will I be backing?  It’s a tough one, Sweden have past experience to draw upon, but Russia can welcome back their captain Arshavin to their team and also have the experience of Hiddink.  Back them to win on Betfair at odds of 2.82.  Also small on Arshavin to score at anytime at odds of 4.2.

UPDATE:  (Russia 2-0 Sweden) Well what a fantastic performance from Russia, playing at a fast pace and never giving Sweden any breathing space in the first 30 minutes.  2 out of tow winning bets tonight, courtesy of backing Russia to win and danger man Arshavin scoring on 66 minutes.  4.2 odds for him to score at anytime is the biggest priced winner we’ve had so far, hopefully those small bet will start to come off!!  The other match saw Spain 2-1 against Greece

The final games in the group of death and what a potential night of drama we could be in for.  Can Romania make it through?  Will France and Italy being going home early?  I’ve not thought too much about tonight and decided to get my tips in early today, not because I’m confident, but because my head hurts working out all the possible permutations!!!

France v Italy-  A replay of the last World Cup final, with both teams looking a shadow of the teams they were 2 years ago.  Both teams will be relying on the Dutch to get beat the Romanians to have a chance a qualifying.  Italy could get through with a draw and other complicated scenarios, whereas all the French need to do is win (easy isn’t it?!!).  The teams have played each other 35 times in total with Italy winning 17 of these games and France only winning 8.  France beat Italy in Euro 2000 2-1, scoring the Golden Goal to knock Italy out. 

Euro 2008 Betting tip-  I really don’t have a clue what this result will be, I only know that there will be blood, sweat and tears tonight!!! So I will be going for for the ‘Show an card market’ on Betfair.  Makelele and Gattuso are one yellow card from suspension, but that won’t mean they will be on their best behaviour tonight!!  I’m thinking both players will be needed to make crucial tackles and one wrong challenge will land them in the book.  Back both to be yellow carded at 2.8 and 2.6 odds on the Betfair. 

UPDATE- (France 0-2 Italy)Well in the end it wasn’t quite the game that we thought it would be, with Ribery off and France down to 10 men, that action wasn’t exactly end to end and fast paced.  We win our bet for Gattuso being shown a card, a little consolation after 3 losing bets today.  It’s a shame because I was thinking of backing a red card to be show at 3.15 odds.   

Holland v Romania-  Holland will be fielding a few of their squad players after assuring qualification.  If Romania win this match, then they will qualify at the expense of Italy and France.  The Dutch have beaten the Romania 60% of the time they played each other, with Romania only winning 1 game.

Euro 2008 Betting tip-  This is another game giving me headache!!  Will Holland let Romania win so that two of their fiercest rivals drop out?  Or will they go out for the win tonight?  I don’t know!!! Does anyone?  We know Holland have qualified and will rotate the team, but they still have impressive players.  I’ll go with a small bet on Romania to do it tonight, qualification is in their hands and they should give this game a good go tonight.  They are currently at 2.44 odds to win tonight.

UPDATE-  (Holland 2-0 Romania) Of course Holland won, who could of ever doubted they would??  Another small bet that didn’t pay off, dissapointing but nothing much lost. 

An exciting night of football yesterday, Turkey reached amazing odds of 210 in running on Betfair, I hope someone made some money!! Croatia have already sealed their place in to the quarter finals, so it’s out of Austria, Poland and Germany to see which will qualify.

Austria v Germany- Qualification for Germany  is in their hands, getting one point in this game will mean Poland cannot qualify.  Schweinsteiger is serving his suspension due to his silly sending off against Croatia.  Out of the 11 times the teams have played competitively, Germany have won 8 times and the Austrians only have two wins.  The last four meetings have been friendlies with Germany winning all 4.  Austria need to get all three points to qualify and hope that Poland don’t win by a bigger margin.  This should make quite an open game from Austria, but Germany look to have the advantage.

Euro 2008 betting tip:  It will be dangerous for Germany to sit back and play for a draw, especially with the Austrians wanting to give it their all to get a result out of this match.  The problems for the Austrians is that they don’t look like they can score more than one goal, so if the Germans score first then they are in big trouble.  It is almost unthinkable to not see Germany win this match a qualify, but I’ll be backing Austria with  small bet to win at odds of 11.0 on Betfair.  Maybe….but probably not!!

UPDATE- Austria lacked the quality in the final third and losing 1-0 to Germany is nothing to be ashamed about, especially with the performance they put it.  With a few more quality players in the Austrian side, they could become a team to look out for in future.  Saying all that, though, we lost the bet to back them, going small was a good option!!

Poland v Croatia -  Croatia will rotate a few players in order to keep them fresh.  The two teams have met each other 4 times in friendlies, Croatia won the first 2 games, followed by a draw and a Poland win.  Poland will have to go for the win here, hoping that Austria also beat Germany, but Poland will have to beat Croatia by a bigger margin.

Euro 2008 betting tip:  Croatia have already qualified so will be resting a few players, but that’s not to say they won’t want to win this match.  They’ll give a good effort just like they did against England in the Euro 2008 qualification (anyone remember??).   I’ll back Croatia at odds of 3.15, Poland are favourites to win going into this match.

UPDATE- Croatia didn’t let us down, winning 1-0 against Poland.  There’s no doubt that a passionate manager like Bilic wants to win all his matches and that showed today even though they rotated the team.  At least we got a winning bet and at 3.15, it more than covers the small loss from the Germany match.